The Delta variant is changing the calculations of governments around the world. Many had hoped that the summer of 2021 would be the ideal time to phase into a state of normalcy. Instead, the new variant has raised severe doubts on how quickly we will be putting this pandemic behind us. What’s more notable is that the new variant has widened the gulf between highly vaccinated nations, and those that are still lagging in this regard. It has infiltrated countries that had previously kept the virus at bay, and increased questions across notable experts on what this virus can do.
And understandably so; the new variant’s ability to spread more quickly than previous versions has driven caseloads even in highly vaccinated countries such as the U.K and Israel. It was also the primary reason the restrictions on travel to India were widely extended throughout summer in the U.A.E, a popular time for most to visit their home country.
In fact, it’s become normal to read the same alarming headlines every few months. Especially as the virus that causes Covid-19 evolves and mutates, the same concerns pop up about whether the variant evades vaccines, makes people sicker than the old versions, and increases transmissibility. Does that mean that the Covid-19 is still as significant a threat as it was last year?
The Reassuring Data on the Delta Variant
Not really… The saving grace, through it all, has been the numbers we have seen coming in from most countries. Our only hope – ‘the vaccines’ have been able to suppress severe illness and death. And this has been the proverbial silver lining in the dark clouds. Our bold bets on the shots are the surest way back to normalcy, and they seem to be working for now.
Studies from the U.K. have found that vaccines are still incredibly effective at preventing severe illness, even with the Delta variant circulating. The Pfizer vaccine was 96% effective after two doses in avoiding hospitalization. This means that the average unvaccinated person in the study was more than 25 times as likely to be hospitalized with COVID, as the average vaccinated one.
This is all excellent news. The vaccines are as good as first heralded, even against new variants. However, on the flip side, the herd immunity most countries were hoping to achieve has been put out of reach for now.
What Does That Mean?
Quite simply, now is not the time to throw caution to the wind. The fact that unvaccinated people are still being hospitalized underscores the continuing need, to get as many people vaccinated as possible. That will also protect children under 12, who aren’t eligible for vaccines.
From what we have seen in India, and even the U.K, once a country has weathered a wave of Delta-driven cases, a transition toward normalcy is possible, albeit slowly. However, the threat of an emergence of a significant new variant is still strong. This makes our adherence to social protocols, and raising vaccination rates, the most critical factors in achieving herd immunity.
Covid-19 isn’t going away anytime soon. Having said that, as most scientists are now saying – the idea is not to end COVID-19, but to manage it as an endemic disease, much like the flu. How soon we get there is entirely up to us.
