As we enter the second year of the COVID-19 pandemic, hoping to find a sense of normalcy, reports of new variants and mutations have been disheartening. Following the emergence of a UK variant, two more from South Africa and Brazil have been reported since. While mutations in viruses are fairly expected, higher virulence and transmissibility in new strains are ringing alarm bells. The UK variant is found to be 30% more lethal and 70% more transmissible, which, if true, could land a devastating blow on an already stressed world.
But, like many others, my early concern with new strains revolved around how they are going to impact the vaccine progress we have made so far. And whether the vaccine-generated antibodies can offer the same protection against the new strains. I was relieved to learn that, in many cases, they do indeed offer a degree of protection against new strains. But that does not mean the problem of mutations is solved. If anything, it has only begun.
What pharma companies are saying
Pfizer recently issued a statement saying the new mutations have “small impact” on the effectiveness of antibodies generated by the company’s vaccine. In other words, Pfizer vaccine can still generate immune response against new strains, but not as effectively. And since their statement is supported by tests conducted on a small subset, the findings are still not statistically significant. But Moderna has been more vocal about its vaccine’s lower efficacy against new strains, particularly the South African one.
India’s indigenous Covaxin, too, has been given a nod by ICMR and NIV, for its use against the new strains. But not without an interjection that its effectiveness could vary with new strains. This has naturally raised concerns, with at least 150 reported cases of the UK variant in the country.
A must-win race
While timely assurances from pharma companies are thoughtful, their studies are not peer-reviewed yet. So, the need of the hour is more research and extensive data sets. But time is of the essence here, since each new infection gives the virus a chance to mutate and make copies of itself. This is to say, we are essentially trailing in a race against new mutations. So, the sooner we vaccinate more people, better the chances are to avert a mutation crisis. And the longer we take, the more newer strains could emerge, which are likely to go undetected in current tests, thus allowing more transmission.
So, regardless of the effectiveness of popular vaccines against new strains, the rational solution under the current evolving situation is to increase the vaccination rate. In the meantime, a few companies are contemplating the development of multi-antibody vaccines, which can target the virus in more than one ways, in case one proves ineffective. Imperial College, London, which was trailing in the vaccine race, is now actively focusing on new variants, hoping to gain a head start in the parallel race that is set to heat up. This could be valuable for the future, but does not offer much optimism for the present.
I believe we must continue to take precautionary measures, and keep travel restrictions and mandatory quarantine in effect. This could help us stop new strains from gaining a foothold within a localized population. But most importantly, we must boost vaccination drives, by leveraging the resources that are accessible at the moment. To this end, the UAE’s integrated vaccination approach, using Pfizer, BioNTech and Sinopharm vaccines, is both strategic and pragmatic. Such widespread efforts could help us tilt the odds in our favour, in this race against new mutations.